Massenbach-Letter. NEWS 09.03.18

Massenbach-Letter. News – We celebrate the International Women’s Day (IWD) –

& ceterum censeo: Syriam esse construendam.

Massenbach*VATIKAN NEWS: Syrien: Franziskaner beklagen Dschihadistenterror.

Kirchliche Organisationen wiesen demgegenüber auf die gezielt gegen die christliche Infrastruktur gerichteten Attacken der Rebellen hin. –

Erstmals ist ein Hilfskonvoi in die belagerte syrische Rebellenenklave Ost-Ghouta gelangt. Auf die seit Wochen andauernden pausenlosen Granaten- und Raketenangriffe der Rebellen auf die christlichen Viertel von Damaskus weisen laut Stiftung „Pro Oriente“ an diesem Montag syrische Bischöfe und Kirchenverantwortliche hin.

Der Konvoi mit Hilfsgütern der UNO und des Internationalen Komitees vom Roten Kreuz (IKRK) traf am Montag in der belagerten Region bei Damaskus ein, wie die UNO mitteilte. Laut WHO wurden von den syrischen Behörden aber wichtige medizinische Hilfsgüter blockiert. Kirchliche Organisationen wiesen demgegenüber auf die gezielt gegen die christliche Infrastruktur gerichteten Attacken der Rebellen hin.

„Pro Oriente“ zitierte in einer Aussendung den Franziskaner Bahjat Elia Karach mit den Worten: „Die Christen fühlen sich verlassen und frustriert, weil sich niemand um das kümmert, was in den christlichen Vierteln auf Grund des ständigen Beschusses vorgeht. Als christliche Gemeinschaft können wir nichts anderes tun als beten und so vielen Menschen wie möglich konkrete Hilfe leisten, ohne auf Religionsbekenntnis oder Ethnie zu schauen, wie das auch Papst Franziskus verlangt, der als einziger ,Leader‘ in der Welt Frieden für Syrien fordert.“

Am 1. März hätten in der Umgebung des Franziskanerklosters im Bezirk Bab Touma 13 Raketen eingeschlagen, „alle punktgenau zu dem Zeitpunkt, an dem die Kinder und Jugendlichen aus den Schulen kommen“. Die Absicht, Kinder und Jugendliche zu treffen, sei offensichtlich gewesen, so Karach.

Der maronitische Erzbischof von Damaskus, Samir Nassar, hob in einem Hirtenwort hervor, dass die Intensität der Kämpfe „nicht nur die von den Dschihadisten als Geiseln genommene Zivilbevölkerung von Ost-Ghouta“ betreffe. So habe sich landesweit der Exodus besonders unter Jugendlichen und Männern beschleunigt, sodass es bereits spürbaren Arbeitskräftemangel trotz der schlechten Wirtschaftslage gebe. Die Syrer seien heute ein „Volk der Armut, das von Zuwendungen und Bettelei leben“ müsse. 80 Prozent der im Gesundheitswesen Tätigen – „darunter die meisten Ärzte“ – hätten das Land verlassen. Das führe dazu, dass 60 Prozent der Verwundeten und Verletzten sterben.

( see next article: Stability Operations in Syria -The Need for a Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs)

Den großen internationalen Presseagenturen zufolge haben die Regierungstruppen bereits ein Drittel der letzten großen Rebellenenklave unter ihre Kontrolle gebracht. Unterdessen forderte der UNO-Menschenrechtsrat in Genf eine dringende Untersuchung der jüngsten Angriffe und Bombardierungen in Ost-Ghouta.

http://www.vaticannews.va/de/welt/news/2018-03/syrien-buergerkrieg-menschenrechte-kirche.html

Syrien: „Der Westen sagt nur einen Teil der Wahrheit“

Kirchenleute im Nahen Osten werfen dem Westen häufig vor, einen verzerrten Blick auf die dortigen Konflikte zu haben. Auch William Shomali sieht das so. Der Patriarchal-Vikar für Jordanien kritisiert die westliche Haltung zum Syrien-Krieg.

Stefan von Kempis – Vatikanstadt

 

„Anderthalb Millionen syrische Flüchtlinge halten sich in Jordanien auf, und ebenso viele im Libanon“, sagt Shomali im Gespräch mit Vatican News. „Sie fliehen vor Armut, vor allem aber vor dem Tod – sie haben Angst vor dem Tod. Für sie ist das eine Art Dritter Weltkrieg!“

Ein Weltkrieg, bei dem der Westen in der Wahrnehmung der Öffentlichkeit weitgehend abseits steht. Dabei ist er nach Bischof Shomalis Analyse gar nicht unbeteiligt an dem Schlachten.

Für eine Lösung der syrischen Krise müsste man wirklich zusammenarbeiten! Sie ist nicht nur eine Krise unter syrischen Kriegsgegnern, sie ist auch eine Krise unterschiedlicher Perspektiven Europas und Amerikas. Man achte nur auf den großen Unterschied zwischen der Vision Russlands und Amerikas.“

„In Damaskus gibt es genauso viele Tote“

Bischof Shomali spricht es nicht aus, aber mit „Zusammenarbeit“ meint er durchaus, dass der Westen auch mit dem syrischen Präsidenten Bashar al-Assad sprechen müsste. Aber der Westen ist ja verblendet, was Syrien betrifft, das sieht der Weihbischof im Lateinischen Patriarchat von Jerusalem genauso wie andere Kirchenleute in Nahost.

„Der Westen sagt nur einen Teil der Wahrheit. Ein Beispiel: Assad bombardiert Ost-Ghouta in der Nähe von Damaskus, und man spricht von 600 Toten. Aber keiner spricht von den 600 Toten durch den Beschuss der Rebellen, die von Ost-Ghouta aus ins Stadtzentrum von Damaskus zielen! Da gibt es genauso viele Tote.”

http://www.vaticannews.va/de/welt/news/2018-03/syrien-assad-krieg-ghouta-shomali-interview-.html

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From our Russian News Desk. (The views expressed are the author‘s own.)

  • Disillusionment and Missed Opportunities: Russia-U.S. Relations in 2017
  • February 27, 2018 – REUTERS/Carlos Barria – Andrey Kortunov – Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, RIAC member

(…While the Republican victory in the race for the White House appeared to come as a surprise to most Russian political analysts and the political leadership, it was greeted with reactions ranging from cautious optimism to outright elation…Looking back, Russia made at least three tactical (not strategic) mistakes after the new Republican administration came to power. Perhaps a change in the trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations was still possible in January 2017, but the mistakes had a significant cumulative effect that obliterated the modest chance of such change.

…..For many in the Russian political class, confronting the United States is an even more significant part of foreign policy. It is the framework that sustains other aspects of foreign policy. Unfortunately, no other framework has been found in the years since the Cold War. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that the new generation of Russian political experts, journalists, and diplomats who started their careers after the Soviet collapse have adopted the old Soviet logic of geopolitical confrontation with Washington….. )

  • Putin’s State of the Union: Russia Can No Longer Take the US Goodwill and Commitment for Granted
  • Andrey Kortunov – Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, RIAC member – March 5, 2018

(…(the) demonstration of specific artefacts of Kremlin’s military might and ambitions should not conceal a more fundamental change in the Russian strategic thinking articulated by Vladimir Putin: the country is drifting in the direction of strategic isolationism. This is a clear and important deviation from both the traditional Russian (and the Soviet) strategic thinking with very serious implications for the global strategic stability…

If President Putin no longer considers strategic arms control as Russia’s top security priority; if from now on Moscow relies primarily on strengthening its strategic arsenal with new futuristic weapons, it means a fundamental change in the global strategic equation. The concept of strategic stability as we have known it since early 1960s becomes antiquated and immaterial. It is not yet clear, what kind of a new arrangement may replace the old one. Another thing is clear: next years and even decades will be a bumpy road for all of us.).

  • MAD’s Midlife Crisis: The Impact of US-Russia Rivalry on International Arms Control
  • Ekaterina Konovalova – MSc in International and European Studies, Associate Political Affairs Officer at the UN Office of the Special Envoy for Syria
  • Russia’s Foreign Policy: Looking Towards 2018. Summary
  • Andrey Kortunov – Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, RIAC member
  • Column: Longreads – Ivan Timofeev – PhD in Political Science, RIAC Director of Programs, RIAC Member, Head of „Contemporary State“ program at Valdai Discussion Club, RIAC member

(…The 2018 presidential elections will mark the beginning of a new foreign policy cycle for the Russian Federation. In the context of the elections, the main areas of foreign policy expected to be revised (with a certain amount of continuity), and these changes will be reflected in the respective conceptual foreign policy documents. The Russian presidential elections just so happen to coincide with the political cycles in a number of countries, including China, the United States, and several EU and Middle Eastern states. The „naked wire“ or „dead wood“ effect will only increase in international relations. Crisis scenarios may appear as a result of the intentional or unintentional actions of individual countries, or because of poor coordination in resolving issues that affect the entire world. Russia’s key interest lies in creating favourable conditions for the country’s internal development. Economic backwardness is a growing threat to Russia’s sovereignty, narrowing the window of opportunity in foreign policy.)

  • The Caucasian Knot. News:

Week in the Caucasus: review of main events of February 26-March 4

Armenian Parliament elects president – Several cities of Southern Russia host rallies in Boris Nemtsov’s memory – In Baku, 25 people perish in fire – Special operation against militants, and detention of head for Derbent District of Dagestan –

(See earlier reports: Week in the Caucasus: review of main events of February 19-25, Week in the Caucasus: review of main events of February 12-18, Week in the Caucasus: review of main events of February 5-11. / Source: /

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Carnegie Endowment for International Peace:

Vladimir Putin’s Russia Goes Global
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that Russia is not, in former U.S. President Obama’s formulation, a regional power acting out of weakness. Indeed the Kremlin has shown that it has increased global ambitions, a sophisticated toolkit, and a heightened risk appetite.
Return of Global Russia
Last week’s launch of “The Return of Global Russia” project illustrated how the Kremlin is returning Russia to positions of influence in regions where its impact was all but written off two decades ago.

As Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) explained in his keynote address, Russia’s strategy “seeks to take advantage where it can to amplify internal divisions. It is focused on boosting cynicism and tearing down Western institutions from the inside.”

The Global Russia digital feature explains the evolution and impact of this new phase in Russian foreign policy.

The Kremlin’s presence is increasingly visible throughout the Middle East and parts of the Western Balkans, Latin America, and Africa. Since 2012, Vladimir Putin has engaged in a sustained campaign to expand Russia’s global reach. The Kremlin is relying on a highly adaptable toolkit to chip away at the liberal international order and to capitalize on the West’s inability to come up with a unified strategy to respond.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a keynote speech by Senator Mark Warner and panel discussion on an important new phase in Russia’s more assertive foreign policy and its implications for Western policymakers.

Mark Warner

Mark Warner is the senior senator from Virginia and vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

John McLaughlin

John McLaughlin served as the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency from 2000 to 2004 and as acting director of the CIA in 2004.

Elizaveta Osetinskaya

Elizaveta Osetinskaya is a UC Brekeley Graduate School of Journalism fellow and former editor in chief of RBC, Vedomosti, and Forbes Russia.

Andrew Weiss

Andrew Weiss is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Bianna Golodryga

Bianna Golodryga is a correspondent at CBS News and contributor on CNN.

William J. Burns

William J. Burns is president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=18&v=p9uTQHLoE28

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Policy= res publica

Freudenberg-Pilster* Deutsche Bank Research: Koalitionsvertrag – Zukunft geht anders

Von Anfang an standen die Verhandlungen unter einem ungünstigen Stern. Dazu hat zunächst die Verweigerung einer Neuauflage der Groko seitens der SPD-Führung beigetragen. Dann führten die teilweise diametral entgegengesetzten Interessenlagen der Beteiligten, vermeintlich üppige finanzielle Spielräume und das Desinteresse der Bevölkerung an grundlegenden Reformen zu einem in vielen Teilen widersprüchlichen Maßnahmenkatalog, der insgesamt den Einfluss des Staates in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu Lasten individueller Freiräume weiter erhöht. Doch derzeit überwiegt die Erleichterung darüber, dass Deutschland wieder eine „ordentliche“ Regierung hat. Allerdings könnten sich wohl nicht nur die Koalitionäre bald fragen, ob der Preis nicht doch zu hoch war.

In der Sozialpolitik wird erneut die „Vollkaskomentalität“ der Bürger bedient. Dabei wird der von der bisherigen Groko eingeleitete Trend vermehrter Regulierung am Arbeitsmarkt fortgesetzt, obgleich der demografische Wandel und die Digitalisierung mehr Flexibilität erfordern.

Wesentliche sozialpolitische Vorhaben laufen darauf hinaus, auf mehr Nachhaltigkeit ausgerichtete Reformen des vergangenen Jahrzehnts – zumindest ein Stück weit – zurückzudrehen.

Dementsprechend zählt die junge Generation in diesem Bereich einmal mehr zu den Verlierern einer Groko.

Mit der zweifellos notwendigen Investitionsoffensive in den Bereichen Bildung, Forschung & Entwicklung sowie Digitalisierung plant die neue Regierung, Deutschland zukunftsfest zu machen. Dazu bedürfte es aber mehr als staatlicher Gelder, nämlich hinreichenden Vertrauens in private Initiative sowie unternehmerischer Freiräume.

Fiskalische Spielräume sind derzeit vorhanden. Anstatt für konsequente steuerliche Entlastungen werden diese überwiegend für Ausgabenprogramme verwandt – was dem paternalistischen Staatsverständnis der Großkoalitionäre entspricht. Zudem dürften bei einer Normalisierung von Zinsniveau und Konjunktur bald wieder staatliche Finanzierungsdefizite entstehen.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/auf-einen-spd-finanzminister-wartet-udo-von-massenbach/

https://www.dbresearch.de/MAIL/RPS_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000464120.pdf

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Politics: From Vision to Action

Barandat*Military Review 05-06-2017:Stability Operations in Syria –

The Need for a Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs.

Like far too many cases in the past, it also ignores the fact that grand strategy can only succeed if the United States not only terminates a conflict successfully but also creates conditions that provide lasting security and stability. All wars have an end, and the grand strategic goal of warfighting is never just to produce a favorable military outcome or to defeat the enemy. It is to win as lasting a victory as possible in political, economic, and security terms. The kind of thinking that led the Office of the secretary of defense to take a far more serious look at stability operations in its Biennial Assessment of Stability Operations Capabilities in 2012 is even more critical today, and cases like Syria illustrate the point…

Syria is a grim study in just how important the civil dimension of war can be, and in just how difficult the challenge of stability operations (and nation building) can be in tactical, strategic, and grand strategic terms. Many argue that the United States could have intervened decisively early in the Syrian crisis and civil war, done so at acceptable risk, done so at much lower cost, and done so before Syria became a humanitarian disaster and before some three hundred thousand to five hundred thousand Syrian civilians were killed in the fighting. There are no reliable estimates of the seriously injured, but the numbers may well be higher.

USAID estimates provide all too clear a picture of Syrian suffering at a civil level and highlight one aspect of the challenge of conducting stability operations. USAID estimates that there are 13.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in Syria in a country with a total remaining population of around 22 million. There are 6.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Syria, and U.S. aid is now critical to some 4 million people each month.11

No one has a full count of the number Syrian refugees outside Syria because many have stopped registering. Syrian refugees are, however, putting a far greater burden on neighboring states than on Europe or the token numbers that the United States may or may not admit. There are at least 4.8 million Syrian refugees in neighboring states: 2.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, 1 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon, 656,400 Syrian refugees in Jordan, and 225,500 Syrian refugees in Iraq.12

The situation inside Syria is already critical and is growing steadily worse. The United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned at the end of 2016,

Over half of the population has been forced from their homes, and many people have been displaced multiple times. Children and youth comprise more than half of the displaced, as well as half of those in need of humanitarian assistance. Parties to the conflict act with impunity, committing violations of international humanitarian and human rights law.

Among conflict-affected communities, life-threatening needs continue to grow. Neighboring countries have restricted the admission of people fleeing Syria, leaving hundreds of thousands of people stranded in deplorable conditions on their borders. In some cases, these populations are beyond the reach of humanitarian actors.

Civilians living in thirteen besieged locations, 643,780 people in need of humanitarian assistance are denied their basic rights, including freedom of movement and access to adequate food, water, and health care. Frequent denial of entry of humanitarian assistance into these areas and blockage of urgent medical evacuations result in civilian deaths and suffering. 3.9 million people in need live in hard-to-reach areas that humanitarian actors are unable to reach in a sustained manner through available modalities.13

In the absence of a political solution to the conflict, intense and widespread hostilities are likely to persist in 2017. After nearly six years of senseless and brutal conflict, the outrage at what is occurring in Syria and what is being perpetrated against the Syrian people must be maintained. Now is the time for advocacy and now is the time for the various parties to come together and bring an end to the conflict in Syria…..

The United States now seems to lack options for either security or stability, and the U.S. ability to link some kind of meaningful military operation to effective civil-military operations, conflict termination, and reconstruction and recovery is dubious at best.

Syria’s problems go far beyond its humanitarian crises and simply trying to defeat one key enemy. Even if IS is largely defeated, large numbers of IS fighters are certain to escape and disperse, and Syria will still present extraordinarily difficult security and stability problems. Any broader cease-fire is likely to either collapse under the pressure of warring factions or see new power struggles in a divided Syria between elements of the Assad regime, the main Arab rebel factions that include large numbers of Islamist extremists, and the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds…..

The Ultimate Stability Challenge: Recovery and Reconstruction

It is far from clear how long the United States can avoid looking at the far more serious problem of recovery and reconstruction in Syria, both in terms of any broad form of conflict termination and creating any kind of lasting “victory.” As bad as the civil, governance, economic, and justice sectors are in Afghanistan and Iraq, Syria is truly a failed state in terms of governance, economics, and every aspect of recovery and reconstruction…

Rebuilding the country will be a complex and monumental task. Reconstructing damaged physical infrastructure will require substantial international support and prioritization. Rebuilding Syria’s human capital and social cohesion will be an even greater and lasting challenge. Considerable resources will need to go to rebuilding the lives of internally displaced people, and to encouraging the return and reintegration of refugees along with reducing the divisions and tensions between various sectarian communities. Far-reaching economic reforms will be needed to create stability, growth, and job prospects. The immediate focus would need to be on urgent humanitarian assistance, restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding institutional capacity to implement cohesive and meaningful reforms. In the medium term, the reform agenda could include diversifying the economy, creating jobs for the young and displaced, tackling environmental issues, and addressing long-standing issues such as the regional disparities in income and greater political and social inclusion.20

The following are key points in the IMF study:

Many factors will determine the extent and speed of rebuilding the country. Most importantly, the timeframe and success of any reconstruction will hinge on when and how the conflict is resolved.This, in turn, will shape the scope and pace of political and economic reforms. And it will determine how much external assistance is forthcoming, including whether Syria will be able to attract private investment. It will be critical to establish quick wins, including in the energy sector and agriculture, as well as in labor intensive industries such as textile or food processing, which could become drivers of growth.

The recovery will likely take a long time. The literature on post-conflict recovery shows that a longer-lasting conflict will have a more negative impact on the economy and institutions, and prolong the recovery.ix For instance, it took Lebanon, which experienced 16 years of conflict, 20 years to catch up to the real GDP level it enjoyed before the war, while it took Kuwait, which endured two years of conflict, seven years to regain its pre-war GDP level. Given the unprecedented scale of devastation, it may be difficult to compare Syria with other post conflict cases. That said, if we hypothetically assume that for Syria the post-conflict rebuilding period will begin in 2018 and the economy grows at its trend rate of about 4 1/2 percent, it would take the country about 20 years to reach its pre-war real GDP level.xAchieving a higher growth rate would allow the country to achieve a faster recovery.xi This assumes that the country can quickly restore its production capacity and human capital levels and remains intact as a sovereign territory. Any break-up of the country would affect potential growth and might require creating new institutions and governance structures.

Rebuilding damaged physical infrastructure will be a monumental task, with reconstruction cost estimates in the range of $100 to $200 billion. SCPR estimates that the destruction of physical infrastructure between 2011 and 2014 amounted to US$72–75 billion, equivalent to about 120 percent of 2010 GDP. The Syrian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources estimated in early 2015 that the conflict has cost the oil industry alone US$27 billion from the destruction of wells, pipelines, and refineries.xii Similarly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests that it will take years for Syrian’s domestic energy system to return to its pre-conflict operating status, even after the conflict subsides. xiii With the escalation of the conflict since the second half of 2015, the rebuilding estimates are likely to be much higher. More recently, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) estimated that Syria would require about $180 to $200 billion—three times the 2010 GDP.xiv

Syria will also have to grapple with deep-rooted socioeconomic challenges. The extreme rise in mass poverty, destruction of health and education services, and large-scale displacement of Syrians will pose huge challenges. Syria’s population has shrunk by 20–30 percent, with 50 percent of the population internally displaced, destroyed homes, and many highly skilled workers and entrepreneurs having left the country. Moreover, the currently low school enrollment rate of children will negatively impact the country’s potential output for years to come. SCPR estimated in 2014 that the loss of years of schooling by children represents a human capital deficit of $5 billion in education investment. A recent United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) report placed the loss in human capital at $10.5 billion from the loss of education of Syrian children and youth.xv Many children have been born into conflict and exposed to violence, and studies show that exposure to violent conflicts has long-term effects on generations to come. Therefore, considerable resources will need to go to rebuilding the lives of internally displaced people, and to encouraging the return and reintegration of refugees. Further, the conflict has exacerbated existing, and created new, divisions and tensions between various sectarian communities across the country that will need to be addressed in a meaningful way to promote social and political cohesion.21

The IMF study focuses on the IMF’s mission, and fiscal reform and stability as the path to recovery and reconstruction. It notes that there are serious problems in getting the data needed for even an assessment, and its reform suggestions give priority to fiscal issues over political needs and conflict resolution. At the same time, the study makes it make it clear that there is a very real political and human dimension:

The post-conflict reconstruction efforts should seek to address regional disparities in income and social inclusion. Poverty and extreme poverty, according to SCPR, have worsened further with the conflict, and are highest in governorates that have been most affected by the conflict and that were historically the poorest in the country. Addressing the underpinnings of these disparities should be central to any policy package intended to bring about peace and prosperity. Innovative approaches will be required to improve the provision of public services, including reconstruction of damaged water pipelines, farm irrigation and drainage, roads, schools and hospitals, employment prospects, and access to finance at the regional levels. Institutional and governance arrangements should be considered to give local authorities greater controls over service delivery, including greater forms of fiscal decentralization.xvi However, for fiscal decentralization to work, certain critical governance conditions will need to be in place, including ensuring local authorities are held accountable and resources are spent in a transparent manner. Therefore, any decentralization efforts have to take into account Syria’s new governance model, as well as the state of its institutions.

Rebuilding public institutions and improving governance will be key. This includes making fiscal policy and fiscal management effective, fair, and transparent; developing the rule of law and judiciary independence; and re-establishing and strengthening the capacity for monetary operations and banking supervision, and reforming the bank regulatory framework, including the anti-money laundry and combating terrorist financing (AML/CFT) regime.xvii These efforts would help address governance issues that plagued the country prior to the start of the conflict and contributed to regional and income disparities, and that likely have further deteriorated. They would also help facilitate the re-integration of the domestic financial system into the global economy, lower transaction costs, and reduce the size of the informal sector. Lessons from other post conflict countries show that framing an overall consistent technical assistance strategy at the outset of the post-conflict phase and securing donor coordination are critical for successful implementation of economic and institutional reforms…..

www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/May-June-2017/Stability-Operations-in-Syria/

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Middle East

March 5, 2018

Middle East countries plan to add nuclear to their generation mix

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, International Atomic Energy Agency, Reuters, and Bloomberg

Nuclear electricity generation capacity in the Middle East is expected to increase from 3.6 gigawatts (GW) in 2018 to 14.1 GW by 2028 because of new construction starts and recent agreements between Middle East countries and nuclear vendors. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will lead near-term growth by installing 5.4 GW of nuclear capacity by 2020.

The growth in nuclear capacity in the Middle East is largely attributable to countries in the region seeking to enhance energy security by reducing reliance on fossil fuel resources. Fossil fuels accounted for 97% of electricity production in the Middle East in 2017, with natural gas accounting for about 66% of electricity generation and oil for 31%. The remaining 3% of electricity generation in Middle East countries comes from nuclear, hydroelectricity, and other renewables.

Middle East countries are also adopting nuclear generation to meet increasing electricity demand resulting from population and economic growth. Regional electricity production was more than 1,000 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2017, and EIA expects electricity demand to increase 30% by 2028, based on projections in the latest International Energy Outlook. This growth rate is higher than the average global growth rate of 18% over that same period, and higher than the 24% expected growth in non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries.

Developments in building nuclear capacity in the region include

Iran is building a two-unit nuclear plant, Bushehr-II, which is designed to add 1.8 GW of nuclear capacity when completed in about 2026. Iran’s original Bushehr-I facility, which came online in 2011, was the first nuclear power plant in the Middle East. Bushehr-I has one 1.0 GW reactor unit producing about 5.9 million kWh of electricity per year.

The UAE is currently constructing the four-unit Barakah nuclear power plant, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2020. The 1.3 GW Barakah unit 1, which was started in 2012 and completed in 2017, is expected to begin electricity production by mid-2018.

Turkey began construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in late 2017. Akkuyu is a four-unit facility designed to add 4.8 GW of nuclear capacity to Turkey’s generation mix. The first reactor unit is scheduled to be completed by 2025.

Saudi Arabia is planning to build its first nuclear power plant and is expected to award a construction contract for a 2.8 GW facility by the end of 2018. It has solicited bids from five vendors from the United States, South Korea, France, Russia, and China to carry out the engineering, procurement, and construction work on two nuclear reactors. Construction is expected to begin in about 2021 at one of the two proposed sites—either Umm Huwayd or Khor Duweihin.

Jordan plans to install a two-unit 2.0 GW nuclear plant and has been conducting nuclear feasibility studies with Russia’s Rosatom since 2016. In early 2017, Jordan solicited bids for supplying turbines and electrical systems, and construction is expected to begin in 2019 and to be completed by 2024.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017, International Atomic Energy Agency, World Nuclear Association

More information about Middle East nuclear capacity projections is available in EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017. 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35192

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    *Massenbach’simage026 Recommendation*

   We celebrate the International Women’s Day (IWD)

image012 Rural Women’s Empowerment — the Road to Gender Equality & Sustainable Development
Lakshmi PuriWhen we celebrate the International Women’s Day (IWD) this year we shine the brightest light on the vast majority of women – especially in developing countries that live and work in rural areas and whose empowerment is about bringing the farthest left behind to the forefront of being the prime … MORE >>
image013 A Fair Reflection? Women and the Media
Audrey AzoulayInformation and communication technologies have the potential to open up new worlds of ideas and the media – television, newspapers, advertising, blogs, social networks, film – is increasingly omnipresent in the lives of many of us. In line with one of the major themes of this year’s Commission on … MORE >>
image014 Ensuring Equality & Inclusion Essential to Weed Out Roots of Extremism
Ambassador Anwarul K. ChowdhuryIn the next seven days two of the biggest events that drive the women’s equality agenda will energize all well-meaning people of the world. The first on 8 March the International Women’s Day will assert renewed energy for women’s activism for peace, rights and development. Ambassador Anwarul … MORE >>
image015 Press for Progress: Women’s Equality & Political Participation
Peter Kagwanja and Siddharth ChatterjeeMarch 8, 2018 International Women’s Day offers another opportunity to reflect on the progress made towards gender equality and women’s political rights. True, the annual event, which has been observed for over 100 years, is about women’s rights. Every woman and girl dreams of a world in which … MORE >>
image016 Promoting Green Growth to Meet Global Aspirations for Gender Equality
Frank RijsbermanThe world has seen tremendous economic growth over the last decades, which has led to poverty reduction and increased welfare for millions of people. Environmental sustainability and social inclusiveness are key to the resilience of these gains and continued growth. “Leaving no one behind” as we … MORE >>
image017 Everyone Stands to Gain When More Women take Top Positions in Businesses
Richard BaratheWomen’s role in the workplace is at the heart the International Women’s Day commemoration. Even though it first celebrated a demonstration by women workers in New York in 1857, it was the killing of nearly 150 young women workers in a sweatshop, engulfed by a massive fire in just 20 minutes, which … MORE >>
image018 #MeToo in the Global Workplace: Time to Connect the Dots
Laila Malik and Inna MichaeliSince its explosion onto the social media landscape at the end of 2017, the #metoo movement has continued to gain global traction. Initially centred on powerful Hollywood women breaking decades of silence about sexual abuse and harassment in the industry, the conversation soon spread across global … MORE >>
image019 Fear and Uncertainty Grip Rohingya Women in India
Stella PaulIn the semi-lit makeshift tent covered with strips of cardboard, five women sit in a huddle. As their young children, covered in specks of mud and soot, move around noisily, the women try to hush them down. Hollow-eyed and visibly malnourished, all the women also appear afraid. Aged 19-30, they … MORE >>
image020 In Latin America “Me Too” Doesn’t Always Mean the Same Thing
Fabiana FrayssinetFrom the Argentine slogan „Ni una menos“ (Not one less)“ to Colombia’s “Now is not the time to remain silent”, activism against gender violence has grown in Latin America since 2015, with campaigns that have social and cultural differences from the „MeToo“ movement that emerged later, in 2017, in … MORE >>
image021 Rural Women Are Essential to the Struggle Against Hunger
Orlando MilesiAdelaida Marca, an Aymaran indigenous woman who produces premium oregano in Socoroma, in the foothills of the Andes in the far north of Chile, embodies the recovery of heirloom seeds, and is a representative of a workforce that supports thousands of people and of a future marked by greater gender … MORE >>
image022 The Silent Victims of Domestic Violence in Georgia
Sopho KharaziAs a student in Rome, the closest event that left a mark in my life was the Women’s March in the Italian capital. The march allowed me to contribute to the empowerment of women and to demonstrate that no woman is free– even if one’s rights are being violated. #MeToo. Domestic violence … MORE >>
image023 Rise of Feminism & the Renewed Battle for Women’s Rights
Sanam Naraghi-AnderliniIn 1909, the Socialist Party of America, in support of female garment workers protesting working conditions, designated March 8 as a day to honor women. By 1917, women in Russia were protesting for ‘bread and peace’ against a backdrop of war. In recognition of that protest and women’s suffrage in … MORE >>
image024 A Long Way Still to Achieving Gender Equality: International Women’s Day
Akinwumi A. AdesinaInternational Women’s Day is a call to celebrate the extraordinary achievements of women and a reminder that globally, we are a long way from achieving gender equality. Akinwumi A. Adesina Today, women in Africa lag behind men politically, socially and economically, even though they make … MORE >>

 

 

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see our letter on:  http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html

 

*Herausgegeben von Udo von Massenbach, Bärbel Freudenberg-Pilster, Joerg Barandat*

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05-06-17 Military Review stability-operations-in-syria-by-anthony-cordesman-v2.pdf
03-05-18 Deutsche Bank Research_Koalitionsvertrag_Zukunft_geht_anders- PROD0064120.pdf
03-06-18 Russia_US_Relations, Caucasian News.pdf

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