Massenbach-Letter. NEWS 24.02.17

Massenbach-Letter. News – STRATFOR: In Russia, Visions of the Future Evolve

  • Carnegie Moscow Center:Decline, Not Collapse: The Bleak Prospects for Russia’s Economy
  • From our Russian News Desk: Ensuring Euro-Atlantic Security
  • Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz
  • West Point: The Formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Wider Tensions in the Syrian Insurgency
  • Syria: Saudi Arabia Prepared To Send Ground Troops To Fight Islamic State
  • Tom Cotton played a key role in getting Trump to elevate McMaster
  • Israeli-Palestinian water talks important for two-state solution
  • Rußland 1917: Wie wurde Polen unabhängig?
  • Poll: Americans want Democrats to work with Trump

Massenbach* STRATFOR: In Russia, Visions of the Future Evolve

Analysis

By Lauren Goodrich

How do you measure a country’s hope? Quality-of-life indexes offer an overview of how well the population of a given country lives on average, based on factors such as life expectancy, employment rate and per capita gross domestic product. But although this metric gives an idea of how people may feel about their lives and countries today, it doesn’t necessarily reflect their desires or expectations for the future. In Russia, parents‘ dreams for their children, as recorded in polls taken periodically in the 25 years since the Soviet Union’s collapse, provide unusual insight into the level of optimism among the country’s population. Their varying responses through times of trial and triumph illustrate Russia’s post-Soviet transformation and reveal its people’s hopes for the future.

Anywhere but Here

When the Soviet Union fell, it took many of its most fundamental institutions down with it. The political system descended into disarray under President Boris Yeltsin. Organized crime and oligarchs ran rampant, inciting power grabs, violence and chaos. Moscow, meanwhile, was losing a brutal war in Chechnya. By 1998, the country’s financial and economic structures had imploded, leaving Russia in crisis. Teachers and doctors went months without pay as educational and health care systems struggled to remain functional. And during the bitter winter months, schools, universities and hospitals endured regular electricity and heating shortages.

As the quality of life in Russia declined, emigration from the country soared. Those who hadn’t made it out of Russia seemed to be plotting their departure. During my brief time teaching at Siberia’s Tomsk Polytechnic University in 2000, I witnessed the phenomenon firsthand. My students were eager to learn English, particularly the American variety, voracious for stories of life back in the United States and awed by the seemingly endless possibilities the West had to offer. Under the circumstances, it was hardly surprising that some 70 percent of Russian parents hoped their children would go on to study and work abroad, according to a poll released in 1997 by Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The Soviet Union’s collapse had shaken Russians‘ confidence in their country and left them with little hope for the future.

But for President Vladimir Putin, the country’s desperation represented a rare opportunity. Putin officially came to power in 2000 as a Moscow outsider who promised to stabilize Russia and restore its prosperity and international esteem. Using a deft but often heavy hand, Putin consolidated the country politically, economically, financially and socially. He rallied the public behind one dominant party, purged dissident political forces from the Kremlin, brought the industrial sector under state control, rooted out oligarchs and criminal organizations alike, and rebuilt the military. To ensure that his sweeping reforms were properly implemented, Putin installed former colleagues from the security services in business, ministerial, regional and even cultural posts. By the mid-2000s, Russians had regained confidence, and Putin’s approval ratings were high.

Working From Home

The country’s stability gave Russian parents a brighter outlook for their children’s prospects. A Levada poll conducted in 2005 found that 57 percent of Russians hoped that their children would make careers in their home country, mostly in business or professional fields. According to the poll, 26 percent of Russian parents wanted their children to enter financial professions, becoming lawyers, economists or bankers. Eighteen percent preferred careers in medicine, while 13 percent wanted their children to work as businesspeople or entrepreneurs. Though the respondents envisioned different careers for their children, they shared the desire to see the next generation succeed as it helped the country prosper. The poll indicated a sense of optimism among Russians about the direction of their country.

A decade later, Russian attitudes have changed once again. A poll by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center surfaced at the end of 2016, claiming that 53 percent of Russians want their children to find employment in the security services, police or military. This ambition reflects a shift in public opinion unprecedented in Russia’s post-Soviet history. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Russians viewed the security services as defunct and avoided conscription by any means available for fear of being deployed to Chechnya. Today, by contrast, the sheer size of the security, police and military forces made them among the most attractive prospective employers for Russians entering the workforce. Russia employs 1 million active armed forces, 907,000 interior forces, including police, 400,000 National Guard members, and 300,000 Federal Security Services (FSB) personnel, along with tens of thousands of others in smaller security agencies. Among the country’s other employers, only natural gas behemoth Gazprom can rival these employment figures, though it doesn’t offer the same opportunities for power and prestige that the security and armed forces do.

The Power of Patriotism

Job availability and upward mobility, however, aren’t the only factors inspiring young Russians — or at least their parents — to dream of careers in the security services and military. For more than a decade, the Kremlin has promoted patriotism among the population. Putin’s first patriotism campaign in the 2000s centered on civic duty in an effort to rally people behind the Russian state. The subsequent surge of support gave the Kremlin a free hand to crack down on oligarchs, political rivals, Chechen insurgents and oppositional foreign elements.

The Kremlin’s latest patriotism drive has tapped deeper into the Russian identity by appealing to the public’s sense of moral virtue, its survival instinct and its belief in Russia as a global leader. At the same time, the effort to counter NATO’s buildup in Eastern Europe, the military and intelligence campaigns in Syria and the interventions in eastern Ukraine have restored Russian military and security forces to their former prestige. The FSB, which has infiltrated the country’s most important industries, has become the most powerful entity in Russia. The military, meanwhile, has come to symbolize the nation’s return to global prominence. The change in public perception was evident in March 2016, when people gathered en masse at Voronezh air base to greet Russian pilots returning home from Syria.

But perhaps the most striking aspect of this shift is what it portends for Russia. As the recent poll suggests, most Russians today believe that their country’s future lies in its military might, rather than its economic success. And though their conviction is based in part on the belief that Russia has regained its strength as a world power, it also derives from a fear that the entire system could collapse again if not properly secured.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-visions-future-evolve?id=be1ddd5371&uuid=23a80303-f43d-42e5-bb2c-30a55781d0d2

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Carnegie Moscow Center:Decline, Not Collapse: The Bleak Prospects for Russia’s Economy

By Andrey Movchan

Russia faces bleak economic prospects for the next few years. It may be a case of managed decline in which the government appeases social and political demands by tapping the big reserves it accumulated during the boom years with oil and gas exports. But there is also a smaller possibility of a more serious economic breakdown or collapse. A proper analysis requires consideration of a number of key and often overlooked features of Russia’s post-Soviet economy. (For more see att.)

http://carnegie.ru/2017/02/02/decline-not-collapse-bleak-prospects-for-russia-s-economy-pub-67865?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkROa05USmpPVEExTXpkbSIsInQiOiJ0MWloM2pUbHV2ZWpTVjFBTEoxWXk5bkZuc2UrRjVIR1hIYkU0ekw3Q2RiY1JjQ2Z3WjRNV0xnM2FFRElrdGZ3RlJmN0FXQkNpYUxPWWY0OVZwUll4NitjXC9EUGc4SzRwS3FDT2tSWU5HTEc3bWVqWmlpSGg4R1BKS3BkRERYXC9rIn0%3D

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From our Russian News Desk. (The views expressed are the author‘s own.)

  • Ensuring Euro-Atlantic Security

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"The Security Times”, Sonderausgabe von "The Atlantic Times" zur Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz … u.a.:

Big money

February 10, 2017 … Donald Trump has brought back the concept of burden sharing in NATO, albeit with a different spin: Who actually pays the bill and for what? Adam Thomson, Harald Kujat, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau and Nick Childs debate …

US spending on EU security is only 4.5 percent of the Pentagon budget

By Lucie Béraud-Sudreau and Nick Childs … S.6

https://www.securityconference.de/fileadmin/MSC_/2017/Sonstiges/ST_Feb2017_double_page.pdf

Dazu die Kolumne von Theo Sommer, 21. Februar 2017: Die Milchmädchenrechnung der USA

… Sicherlich ist es richtig, dass die Europäer mehr für ihre eigene Sicherheit tun müssen – wegen Putin, wegen Trump, wegen wachsender Bedrohungen aus dem Mittleren Osten und aus Nordafrika. Aber nicht wegen der Vorwürfe, die sie dauernd aus Amerika zu hören bekommen, sie seien Drückeberger, Trittbrettfahrer, gleichsam militärpolitische Zechpreller. Die Unterstellung brauchen sie nicht auf sich sitzen zu lassen … Die Amerikaner verweisen stets darauf, dass sie 72 Prozent aller Verteidigungsausgaben der Nato-Staaten tragen … stellen keineswegs ihr gesamtes Militärdispositiv in den Dienst der Nato … eindeutig … dass die USA ihre Sicherheitsdollars hauptsächlich für die eigenen Bedürfnisse ausgeben … Im Gegenzug erhalten sie überdies in Europa Stützpunkte, Aufmarschräume, Kommunikationszentren und Lazarette, ohne die sie ihre fatalen Kriege im Mittleren Osten kaum hätten führen können …

http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/nato-donald-trump-eu-beitraege-forderung-5vor8

  • Mein Kommentar (UvM): Wer nur in Kategorien „Panzer“ denkt, wird US-amerikanische Sicherheitspolitik nicht begreifen. Einen Wirtschaftsstrategen, wie U.S. President Trump, wird auch diese Denke nicht erreichen und schon gar nicht überzeugen, der Aufwendungen/Ausgaben des U.S. Haushalt, auch die des Haushaltes des Pentagon (see US Army Corps of Engineers) als Verteidigungsleistung zuordnet. So langsam dringt auch in Deutschland der Begriff “Vernetztes Denken“ in die Köpfe von Strategen(?).
  • Einem bundesdeutschen Haushälter mit seinen Haushaltstiteln wird das Zuordnungsdenken nicht gelingen.
  • Unterstützung von hoher Politik wird nicht zu erwarten sein, da Politik (jedenfalls Sicherheitspolitik allumfassend) nicht stattfindet. Kann sie zu erwarten sein? Im Englischen ist „not able“ treffend.

Zum Nachlesen: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has approximately 37,000 dedicated Civilians and Soldiers delivering engineering services to customers in more than 130 countries worldwide. With environmental sustainability as a guiding principle, our disciplined Corps team is working diligently to strengthen our Nation’s security….( http://www.usace.army.mil/About/ )

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Combating Terrorism Center at West Point:

The Formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Wider Tensions in the Syrian Insurgency

February 22, 2017

Author(s): Aymenn Al-Tamimi

Abstract: Late January 2017 saw a significant realignment of rebel and jihadi factions in Syria. Following aggressive moves by al-Qa`ida-aligned Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, a number of rebel groups sought protection under Ahrar al-Sham. In response, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and its main allies announced the formation of a new umbrella group, Hay`at Tahrir al-Sham, headed by the leader of a hardline former faction of Ahrar al-Sham. If the lines between the two blocs harden, a confrontation between them could further weaken the rebel position in Syria.

The rapid recapture of east Aleppo by the Assad regime and its allies in the first half of December 2016 constituted a major blow for the Syrian insurgency. In effect, the regime now has firm control over the two largest urban conurbations in the country (namely, Damascus and Aleppo). While areas of insurgent activity remain in some suburbs to the east and south of Damascus, these pockets do not pose a real threat to the regime and could well be removed over the course of this year. While the regime now stands on much firmer ground politically, it still makes very clear its intentions to reconquer the entirety of Syria, and there is little doubt that it will continue to pursue this goal, whatever notions of a political settlement are discussed at foreign venues.

Therefore, there is a very real possibility of a regime advance into the most important remaining insurgent stronghold of Idlib province in the northwest of Syria, from which the regime was almost completely driven out in the spring of 2015. This threat, combined with ongoing soul-searching within rebel and jihadi groups on how the defense of east Aleppo collapsed so quickly, helped give renewed energy to preexisting discussions on mergers between various factions within the Syrian rebellion. (for more see att.)

see: Syria: Saudi Arabia Prepared To Send Ground Troops To Fight Islamic State

https://www.stratfor.com/situation-report/syria-saudi-arabia-prepared-send-ground-troops-fight-islamic-state?id=899b2d6282&uuid=3b0d44d0-5fec-4bdb-a193-e4639456dfda

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Policy= res publica

Bitte keine Kommentare, / Please no comments!

Freudenberg-Pilster* Met Police appoints first female chief Cressida Dick

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39055696

Formularende

Cressida Dick is the new Metropolitan Police Commissioner – the first woman to take charge of London’s police force.

She succeeds Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, who led the force from 2011 until announcing his retirement last year.

****************************************************************************************************************** Politics: From Vision to Action

Barandat*

02-16-17 Decline, Not Collapse_The Bleak Prospects for Russia’s Economy Carnegie Moscow_CP_Movchan_201 7_web_Eng_2_.pdf
02-21-17 Ensuring Euro-Atlantic Security.docx
02-21-17 The Daily 202_ Trump’s new national security adviser literally wrote the boo.pdf
02-22-17 The Formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Wider Tensions in the Syrian Insurgency.pdf

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