Joerg Barandat, Hamburg- Sept. 15, 2013 Subject: W A T E R I N T A K E

„ …Die große Herausforderung besteht darin, das Wissen um den Nexus zwischen Wasser, Energie und Nahrung und um den angemessenen Umgang mit den entsprechenden Versorgungsrisiken innenpolitisch zu verankern und dies zugleich zu einem Kernkonzept der Außenpolitik zu machen. Nur wenn das gelingt, lassen sich künftige Krisenszenarien wie die eingangs skizzierten bewältigen …“

siehe unter WASSERQUELLEN: SWP-Studie »Heiliger Krieg« um Wasser, Energie und Nahrung …

Annual report of the Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights to Water and Sanitation

Ms. Catarina De Albuquerque

… presented on 11 Sep 2013 at the Human Rights Council … While the benefits of access to safe water and sanitation have been widely pronounced, the international community is currently failing to ensure the availability of safe water and sanitation for all, without discrimination, including for future generations … Moreover, while the Millennium Development Goals target calls for sustainable access, the monitoring framework not only fails to capture this dimension, but to some extent provides an incentive for quick solutions that have proven unsustainable in the long term … the world is facing enormous challenges in the area of safe water and sanitation, as regards not only improving access but also ensuring quality and sustainability. The difficulties are compounded by the effects of climate change, a decrease in financial resources and the ever-growing demands for water, which put additional stress on resources. Urgent efforts and a change of mindset are needed. Without modifications in practices and policies the situation will only deteriorate. In the present report, the Special Rapporteur demonstrates that integrating sustainability is key to securing the human rights to water and sanitation, today and for future generations … Water and sanitation must be available for present and future generations, and the provision of services today should not compromise the future ability to realize these human rights. Understanding sustainability from a human rights perspective greatly contributes to achieving lasting solutions to water and sanitation challenges for present and future generations … Put in place accountability mechanisms at the national and international levels to deal with unsustainable and retrogressive practices in the areas of water and sanitation … Include a water and sanitation goal in the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015 targeted at eliminating inequalities in access and ensuring sustainability …


Side Event: Water and Human Rights in the Post 2015 Agenda


One “Water” Goal, One Process – NGO/ CSO Declaration to the 24th regular session of the Human Rights Council (9 – 27 September 2013)

… Develop a single integrated and SMARTER [words specific, measurable, attainable,
relevant, time-bound, evaluated and reevaluated] water goal for a water safe world –– which includes a human rights based approach to … Universal use of basic drinking water, adequate sanitation, hand washing facilities and menstrual hygiene facilities at home, schools and health care facilities while progressively eliminating inequalities … responsible, participatory and sustainable integrated water resource management – locally, nationally and transboundary – and … waste water management (including treatment) as indispensable elements for sustainable development and poverty alleviation …


Towards a Human Rights Based Water Governance

… in the globalisation of democracy. This is linked to environmental protection for instance through the embedding of the human right to healthy environment in more than 100 constitutions. During the period in which the Millennium Development Goals were being implemented, a revolution took place in the way in which water and anitation are approached through the recognition of water and sanitation as human rights. Therefore the post 2015 framework cannot approach water and sanitation in the same way as before : human rights need to take centre stage … there appears to be no reason to expect that human rights gurantees will have a negative effect on water efficiency …



Water – use it or lose it

2013-09-12 Johannesburg – The proposed National Water Policy Review is not aimed at taking water away from farmers … The water department was responding to media reports that commercial farmers believed they were under attack by Water Affairs Minister Edna Molewa’s department … it was disingenuous for some media to create panic in the farming community by giving the impression that the policy was aimed at taking water away from farmers … 12 policy positions outlined in the National Water Policy Review to address legislative gaps in the sector … one of the review’s proposals was to end temporary or permanent water trading … „It will be obligatory for any holder of an entitlement to use water, which is no longer utilised, to surrender such use to the public trust“ … The principle of „use it, or lose it“ would result in those with water reserves which were not being used, having this water taken by the state for reallocation, to maximise the efficiency of water use …Molewa said many people were still without their basic right to water. „It is a fact that 98% of the water available in South Africa is already allocated, while many people do not have access to water for basic human needs such as drinking, cooking and personal hygiene, as well as for food security and productive use.“


Water No. 1 issue facing Florida’s future

September 12, 2013 – Florida’s freshwater supply is its top problem as it tries to maintain economic and residential growth, Agriculture Commission Adam Putnam said … „If you think about the golden eggs that Florida depends on — tourism, agriculture construction — they’re all dependent on water … This is a critically important issue and they’re all inseparable … There’s been some chapters in our history where we didn’t exactly get it right, and we need to get it right“ … Florida’s demand for water is expected to increase by about 1.4 billion gallons a day to 7.9 billion gallons in the year 2030 … The state needs to find a sustainable water supply if it wants to continue to grow, attract new industries, meet agricultural needs and still protect the environment … „The easy things have been done already“ … advocated for great water reuse, increased water storage and recovery and desalinization and other alternative water sources, saying tapping traditional sources are either too costly or unavailable … Florida should decide to use 2 billion less gallons of water per day by 2025 instead of 2 billion gallons more …


Israel shares water management technology with Ghana

September 11, 2013 Israel is prepared to share with Ghana its expertise and experiences in water management solutions, Ms Sharon Bar-Li, Israel Ambassador in Ghana, said. She appealed to the public sector to team up with their private counterparts and work in partnership with Israeli water companies to share best practices … since the two nations had been working closely on water and sanitation since the 1950s and 60s, Ghana must not miss the chance to tap Israeli expertise. Israel has the world largest reverse osmosis desalination, water safety and recycles water of about 75 percent for its water for agriculture through drip irrigation technology. Israel also has one of the world’s most advanced systems of waste water treatment and decontamination … Alhaji Collins Dauda, the Minister of / for Water Resources, Works and Housing … said provision of sufficient and sustainable water for domestic and industrial purpose is hit with many challenges …with Israel’s decades of rich and unique experience in the management of water resources, prioritising and packaging knowledge and technology would help exploit vast opportunities in the water sector …


Water biggest challenge for Indian agriculture

Sep 10 2013 Expressing concern over the depleting ground water resources in states like Punjab, Ashok Gulati, the chairman of Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), said the paucity of water for irrigation is emerging as the „biggest challenge“ for the Indian agriculture sector. „The time has come when production needs to be measured by per thousand litres of water used for irrigation, instead of yield per hectare … For producing one kilogram of rice, Punjab consumes 5,400 litres of water, whereas West Bengal consumes only 2,400 litres. This water-intensive cultivation process is causing ground water levels in Punjab to recede by 33 centimetres every day … The road ahead is diversification,“ Gulati told the gathering of about 4,000 farmers, which also included a strong contingent from Punjab, a state where 70% of the cultivable land is irrigated through tubewells. Punjab CM Prakash Singh Badal hit back at Gulati and the Centre saying, „We are being shown the stick like an animal in a zoo. They ask us to diversify, but are silent on how to go about it“ … CM Narendra Modi said the aim of the farmers should be to achieve „more crop, per drop“ …


Water woes continue in Tripunithura

September 7, 2013 … Water tankers arrive only once a week and the women in the house ration out water for the family … Living with uncertainty has become a habit … People would get water even if there was supply only on alternate days, but the uniformity and regularity in supply was the problem. The old pipelines that cannot withstand the force of water was also a problem … water supply could not be provided to 127 houses because of lack of documents … Meanwhile, residents of Tripunithura under the apex council of Tripunithura Rajanagari Union of Residents‘ Association (TRURA) protested in front of the Kerala Water Authority office against lack of water in several parts of the town for the last 15-20 days. Demanding a probe into the irregularities in the laying of the new pipeline from S. N. Junction to Puthiyakavu, V. P. Prasad, chairman of TRURA, alleged there was an alignment problem in connecting the new pipeline to the old through connectors, which were of suspect quality … contractors and the politicians had hastened the pipeline laying project for their own reasons — contractors for losing out on their interest for buying the pipelines and politicians for their love of inaugurating the project.


In Drought, Water War in California Fought Underground

September 7, 2013 For decades, this city in California’s agricultural heartland relied exclusively on cheap, plentiful groundwater and pumped increasingly larger amounts from an aquifer as its population grew. But eventually, the water table dropped by more than 100 feet, causing some of Fresno’s wells to cave in and others to slow to a trickle. The cost of replacing those wells and extracting groundwater ballooned by 400 percent. „We became the largest energy demand in the region — $11 million a year for electricity just to run the pumps,“ said Martin Querin, manager of the city’s water division, which supplies 550,000 residents. Fresno is just one player in a water war that’s quietly being fought underground. Throughout the Central Valley — one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions — farmers, residents and cities have seen their wells go dry. Those who can afford it have drilled deeper wells that can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Experts say water supplies have been strained by growing city populations and massive tracts of newly planted orchards and vineyards … „We can’t keep over-pumping groundwater,“ said Peter Gleick, president of Pacific Institute, a nonpartisan research group in Oakland. „It’s simply unsustainable and not economically viable in the long run.“ … Climate change and droughts are putting additional pressure on aquifers … Some small farmers can’t afford to drill deeper. Rural residents who rely on smaller wells for drinking, cooking and bathing are also feeling the brunt … Some farmers and urban districts are now trying to find solutions to prevent groundwater overuse. Fresno plans to use a combination of surface, ground and treated wastewater and to greatly expand the city’s program to replenish groundwater, and farmers in the Sierra foothills also plan to dig recharging ponds … many farmers and other water users say the state must build more storage, especially groundwater banks, to hold water during wet years …


Water and the Roots of Violent Conflict in Syria

09/07/2013 I am often asked these days about whether I think that the decade-long drought in Syria has played any role in the violent conflict there. My answer is always the same: absolutely. The reason is quite simple, and we have all experienced it. When our basic human needs are not met — for water, food, clothing, shelter, or sleep — we get grumpy. When we get grumpy, we fight. We’ll snap at our children, bicker with our partners and argue with our neighbors. In regions like the Middle East, which has fought over water for several millennia, it does not take much to fan the flames of dispute into a bonfire of violent conflict … Sitting right in the crosshairs of that Middle Eastern hotspot is Syria … That’s not to say that the severe water shortages directly resulted in violent conflict. However, Syria has in fact experienced the perfect storm of water-related misfortunes, that taken together, have arguably played a major role in triggering uprising and violence … the now severe lack of river flows due to both the Turkish reservoir storage and the drought caused even further reliance on groundwater. No one knows how many additional wells were dug, since most are unreported, unmonitored and unregulated. It could have been a million. But life, food and energy require water, and the population dug deep, and deeper, and deeper to access it. Just like having too many straws in a glass of water, the level of water began dropping more and more and more quickly. Finally, many of these same farmers felt that Syrian President Assad’s focus on global trade meant that he was turning his back on the agrarian population. With no government commitment to provide the water necessary for agriculture, and no way to obtain it independently because of drought and falling groundwater levels, Assad gave the farmers even more reason to lash out. Whether or not water scarcity leads to violent conflict depends on a complex recipe that includes several ingredients that must be combined in just a certain way such that the pot boils over. Political stability, government commitment to solutions, national wealth, political relations within the region, the length of the hardship and many other factors all come into play. Clearly, water-driven escalation occurred and tipping points were exceeded that in part have contributed to the situation as it stands today. Societies have always risen and fallen based in large part on the availability of water. While the wealth of many nations of the 21st century allows for greater water security, many countries, like Syria, have none … If water issues can be as destabilizing as they are proving to be in Syria, then it stands to reason that their peaceful resolution — and the associated water, food and economic security that will ensue — will have the opposite effect …


siehe auch:

Wenn der Grundwasserspiegel fällt

03. September 2013 … Die extreme Trockenheit war einer der Auslöser: Auch in Syrien spielte der Wassermangel beim Ausbruch des Bürgerkriegs eine Rolle, es ging nicht allein um Demokratie, Religion und Konflikte zwischen Volksgruppen. Der Aufstand begann 2011 in provisorischen Siedlungen, wohin ein Teil der von Dürren betroffenen Landbevölkerung im Nordosten Syriens geflüchtet war – in der Umgebung der Städte wie Damaskus, Hama und Aleppo. Die jüngste Dürre in Syrien war eine der schwersten, die das Land in den vergangenen 100 Jahren erlebte, sie dauerte rund fünf Jahre. Um die Felder überhaupt bewässern zu können, pumpten die Bauern immer mehr Grundwasser hoch. Über 200 000 Bewässerungspumpen gab es nach Schätzungen 2010 in dem Land, die Hälfte davon ohne Genehmigung, aber von der Regierung Assad toleriert. In den stark überpumpten Gebieten, etwa bei Hama, ist der Grundwasserspiegel in den letzten Jahrzehnten von 50 auf 100 Metern Tiefe gefallen. Quellen trockneten aus, Flüsse führen kaum Wasser. Doch die Regierung half weder den verarmten Bauern noch den Flüchtlingen. Die Konflikte eskalierten … Syrien ist kein Einzelfall. Laut einer Bilanz der Umweltstiftung WWF aus dem vorigen Jahr kam es allein seit 2000 im Streit um die Wassernutzung weltweit zu mehr als 50 gewaltsamen Auseinandersetzungen – in Ländern wie Sudan, Indien oder Bolivien … Vor allem die Übernutzung des Grundwassers und die ineffiziente Nutzung der verfügbaren Reserven macht den Experten im Blick auf die Nahrungsmittelsicherheit Sorge. Die Menge des angezapften Grundwassers hat sich in den vergangenen 50 Jahren verdreifacht, wodurch die Wasserspiegel dramatisch sinken – nicht nur in Entwicklungsländern wie Syrien, sondern auch in wichtigen Anbauregionen etwa in den USA und China. Hinzu kommt, dass das Wasser in der Landwirtschaft, die weltweit rund 70 Prozent des verfügbaren Süßwasser-Angebots verbraucht, oft nicht nachhaltig eingesetzt wird. Rund ein Fünftel der künstlich bewässerten Agrarflächen weltweit sind von Versalzung betroffen, auf einem Zehntel ist der Salzgehalt bereits so hoch, dass die Erträge zurückgehen …


Frisches Wasser für das Tote Meer

07.09.2013 … Das salzhaltigste Gewässer der Welt droht bis 2050 zu versiegen. Jedes Jahr sinkt der Wasserspiegel im Toten Meer im Schnitt um einen Meter. Ein jordanisches Millionenprojekt soll nun das Binnenmeer vorm Austrocknen retten: mit Wasser aus dem Roten Meer. Gleichzeitig könnten Jordanien, Israel und die Palästinensergebiete mit zuvor entsalztem Wasser aus dem Roten Meer versorgt werden … Der Süßwasser-Bedarf der Jordanier und ihrer Nachbarn führt seit den 1960er- Jahren zu einer intensiven Nutzung des Jordans, dem Hauptzufluss des Toten Meeres. Deswegen sei der einstige Strom nur noch ein schmutziges Rinnsal, warnten Umweltschützer bereits vor Jahren. Darüber hinaus gewinnen Israel und Jordanien wertvolle Mineralien aus dem Toten Meer. Die dafür benutzten Verdunstungsteiche haben das Problem weiter verschärft … Umweltschützer schlagen Alarm. Sie befürchten, dass sich durch die Vermischung des Wassers aus beiden Meeren Gipskristalle bilden könnten. Zudem würden Rotalgenblüten ins Tote Meer gelangen. Außerdem könnten die Grundwasservorkommen in der Arava-Senke im Südosten Israels verunreinigt werden … rief deshalb Jordanien, Israel und Palästinenser dazu auf, das Projekt fallen zu lassen und fordert stattdessen eine Kombination mehrerer Maßnahmen. Neben der Einsparung von Wasser solle die Sanierung des Jordan-Tals vorangetrieben werden. Zusätzlich könnte Wasser aus der Türkei abgezweigt werden …


Water thieves possible cause of brown water woes

September 4, 2013 … brown sediment coming out of her water tap … is not the only one experiencing brown water … the City of Winnipeg has hired a consultant to find out why some Winnipeggers have been seeing brown water coming of their taps … One theory is that water thieves are putting an increased strain on the city’s water supply. Use of city hydrants by firefighters, city crews, and construction officials with a permit can lead to increased flows, but sometimes people actually steal water from fire hydrants contributing to the problem … “Any kind of event that can rapidly change the flow in the system can contribute to (brown water),” said water distribution engineer … A sudden change in flows leads to sediment being stirred up in city water mains and causes the water to turn brown… it’s hard to believe someone would actually steal water. “It sounds very far-fetched, I guess this day and age nothing surprises me anymore” …



»Heiliger Krieg« um Wasser, Energie und Nahrung in Südasien

… Im Jahr 2020 eskaliert zwischen den drei Atommächten Indien, China und Pakistan der Streit um das Wasser jener grenzüberschreitenden Flüsse, die im Himalaya entspringen. Nach Rekorddürren, massiven Ernteausfällen und vielen Hungertoten beginnt die chinesische Regierung im Rahmen ihres »South-North Water Transfer Project«, Wasser aus dem Oberlauf des Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra in Tibet zum Gelben Fluss umzuleiten … Die hindunationalistische Regierung in Indien gerät an-gesichts von Hungersnöten innenpolitisch unter Druck. Sie kritisiert den chinesischen »Wasserdiebstahl« und startet eine Kampagne, in der sie auf die religiöse Bedeutung des Brahmaputra aufmerksam macht … Weil Wasser zusehends knapper wird, bezichtigen islamistische Grup-pen in Pakistan Indien des Wasserdiebstahls und rufen zum »heiligen Krieg« auf. Anschläge auf Staudämme an den Nebenflüssen des Indus im indischen Teil Kaschmirs verursachen schwere Überschwemmungen … Wasser wird damit erstmals zur Waffe in den bilateralen Konflikten zwischen Indien und China sowie zwischen Indien und Pakistan … Handlungsmöglichkeiten: Transfer von Know-how und Politikerfahrungen … Eine Lösungsoption ist der Transfer effizienter Technologien und Logistik … Auch ein Transfer bewährter Politiken zum integrierten und kooperativen Was-serresourcen-Management ist eine Option … Die große Herausforderung besteht darin, das Wissen um den Nexus zwischen Wasser, Energie und Nahrung und um den angemessenen Umgang mit den entsprechenden Versorgungsrisiken innenpolitisch zu verankern und dies zugleich zu einem Kernkonzept der Außenpolitik zu machen. Nur wenn das gelingt, lassen sich künftige Krisenszenarien wie die eingangs skizzierten bewältigen …


S. 29 ff in:

Ungeplant bleibt der Normalfall: Szenarien aus der SWP-Foresight Studie 2013

Acht Situationen, die politische Aufmerksamkeit verdienen

September 2013… ungeplante Situationen sind für außen- und sicherheitspolitische Entscheidungsträger häufig der Normalfall und doch zugleich eine große Herausforderung. Sich mögliche Zukünfte auszumalen und dabei konsequent mitzudenken, was sein wird, wenn die Dinge schief- oder zumindest nicht linear laufen, dafür bleibt im politischen Alltag nur wenig Zeit, und auch für die Bürokratie ist das noch keine Routineübung …


World Bank: Thirsty Energy: Will Water Constrain Our Energy Future?

August 29, 2013 … world’s water and energy systems are inextricably linked … With both of these vital resources coming under greater pressures over the next few decades, evaluating the tradeoffs and encouraging cross-sectoral planning is crucial for their sustainable management and development … current energy planning and production is often made without taking into account changes in water availability, due to increased use across sectors or the impacts of climate change … World Bank has embarked on a global initiative, Thirsty Energy, which will help governments break disciplinary silos that prevent cross-sectoral planning to avoid future unsustainable scenarios. The objective of this initiative is to quantify and evaluate the tradeoffs and synergies between water and energy planning and to identify potential constraints resulting from their interdependency … initiative will offer stakeholders the necessary tools to assess the economic, environmental and social implications of water constraints in energy security and power expansion plans and to improve the sustainability of energy and water investments. The World Bank will work closely with countries to evaluate current energy and water sector trends and foster the incorporation of water constraints into energy planning … will facilitate knowledge exchange between the two sectors, advocate globally and regionally for more consideration of energy-water interdependencies and produce a series of technical tools and policy-oriented material and guidance






UN-Water Country Briefs

11 Sep 2013 … present in a visual way the critical importance of water investments for human and economic development, with the intention to foster stronger interventions on water-related issues by policy makers dealing with peace and security, infrastructure investments, agricultural, health, education and environmental issues, as well as macro- and micro-economic perspectives. A series of 13 pilot country briefs is now available … http://www.unwater.org/WaterCountryBriefs.html

US-Congress H.R. 2901: Senator Paul Simon Water for the World Act of 2013

113th Congress, 2013–2015. Text as of Aug 01, 2013 (Introduced) … to strengthen implementation of the Senator Paul Simon Water for the Poor Act of 2005 by improving the capacity of the United States Government to implement, leverage, and monitor and evaluate programs to provide first-time or improved access to safe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene to the world’s poorest on an equitable and sustainable basis, and for other purposes …



Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)

09.09.2013V Video: Brief presentation on „Arctic“ … by Dr Uttam Kumar Sinha,

… Arctic is no longer an isolated region … Asian perspective in the Arctic Council … India have to be more engaged …

Conference September 23 – September 24, 2013

The Geopolitics of the Arctic: Commerce, Governance and Policy …

… und was sonst noch so war:

The Great Gas Game over Syria

September 9, 2013 Even as much has been written about the regional and global actors pursuing their pitiless agendas in Syria, one sub-plot in the vicious drama has remained relatively unexplored. And that is the gas resource and its routes from production to the market. The past five years have seen discoveries of immense energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean; both the Levant Basin located along the shores of Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Gaza and Cyprus and the Nile Basin north of Egypt … The energy bonanza has predictably led to competitive resource scramble and its transport to the favoured customers. After all, the control of and access to the natural resources have been fundamental drivers of much of geopolitics. The roads, railways, ports, as also the oil and gas pipelines are the coveted objects of the powerful. The oil and gas have a three-fold merit: as the commodity inside, as the containers of that commodity and as the carriers of that commodity … Almost the entire Syrian oil was exported to the European Union (EU). The sales have come to a virtual standstill after the European Union (EU) put an embargo on the Syrian oil in December 2011. In fact, in April this year, the EU has permitted imports from the rebel-held areas so long as the deals are approved by the Syrian National Coalition … On June 25, 2011, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed in the Iranian port city of Bushehr to construct a gas pipeline from the Iranian gas field of Assaluyeh through Iraq and Syria … Named the “Islamic Pipeline”, it was to be supplemented by the export of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the Syrian ports on the Mediterranean. Latakia and Tartous are two major Syrian ports … Syria is a key link in both the rival pipeline projects; the one originating in Iran and the one originating in Qatar. Whether the Assad regime survives or a change of regime happens there would determine the global gas system in a large way … Russia has high stakes in the Syrian developments. Its presence on the Tartous port is one of the important ones … The West has high stakes too and not just to contain Russia. Europe has been struggling to break loose of the Russian near monopoly over its gas supplies. Azerbaijan has emerged as a partner of choice in an ambitious “southern energy corridor” … from the newly developed Azeri gas fields to Europe via Turkey … The Qatari gas is an indispensible component in the success of the venture – the gas that would traverse though Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria and Turkey. Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia … 31 July this year … made a hurried visit to Kremlin. He is reported to have pleaded his case for regime change in Syria and offered some incentives to Putin … He is also believed to have offered an assurance that whatever regime came after Assad, the Saudis would not sign any contracts damaging Russian interests by allowing Gulf countries to transport their gas across Syria to Europe. Yet another conspiracy theory? Who knows.


Remarks by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at the opening of the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, Vilnius, Lithuania

Sept 6, 2013 … When we wrote our new Strategic Concept three years ago, we emphasised the importance of energy security. We underscored that Allied solidarity extends to energy. And we gave energy security its rightful place – as a “collective defence” issue … NATO is not an energy institution. But our Alliance has a range of tools to advance the agenda of energy security … Over the past few years, we have managed to firmly anchor energy security on NATO’s agenda … the changing global resource landscape will also raise the importance of energy security. Global energy demand will continue to grow. And we might see more disputes about territories that hold valuable energy resources. I strongly believe that most resource issues will be settled by the power of the market, not by the power of guns. Energy security is not a call to arms. But when it comes to understanding the security implications of global resource developments, NATO must be ahead of the curve …


Merkel’s Unfinished Business: Why Germany Needs to Act Strategically

Judy Dempsey September 5, 2013 … Priorities for the Next German Government … Engage in a debate about Europe’s future. The next government must decide if it supports a more integrated Europe or one in which the member states continue to pursue their own national interests. Either choice will have immense implications for Europe’s role as an economic and political player. This will also mean deciding whether the EU should be enlarged … Take the U.S. shift away from Europe to the Asia-Pacific seriously. This pivot will leave a security vacuum in Europe that cannot be ignored by Germany or other European countries … Decide on a security strategy. Such a doctrine is urgently needed and must reflect the changes taking place not only in the United States but also closer to home, in Turkey, Russia, and the Middle East. The strategy must be European in outlook and outline the kind of security and defense structures Europe needs in order to defend and articulate its interests and values. Germany, with support from other countries … should start taking the lead on all these issues …


Australia’s Choice – Will the Land Down Under Pick the United States or China?

September 4, 2013 … Australia is caught between two poles: the United States, its indispensable ally, and China, on which its economy overwhelmingly depends. As the strategic rivalry between the United States and China grows, Australia’s position between them becomes even more delicate. Inevitably, Australia’s foreign policy debate has now become focused around the question of how to manage and balance these two critical relationships … Australia’s leaders have not handled the discussion gracefully … Australia does not face an all-or-nothing choice right now … though, no one has ever seriously argued that it does … In fact, most everyone in Australia wants both relationships to flourish, so that the United States can keep Australians safe while China makes them rich. But the fact of the matter is that Australia will be increasingly unable to compartmentalize its relationships with the United States and China … The reason: both the United States and China now see their political and strategic relationship with Australia primarily in terms of their own rivalry. The result: Australia can strive for good ties with both, but will have to realize that each will be watching to make sure that the other doesn’t get the upper hand … Canberra … wants to persuade both sides that it is really choosing theirs. In other words, Canberra is simply doing what smaller powers usually do when they are caught between rival giants: they try to tell both what they want to hear. But that is hard to do, especially with everyone watching, and Australians have little skill or experience in this kind of essentially duplicitous diplomacy … The strategy does not appear to be fooling Washington … United States replaced Britain as the incarnation of Anglo-Saxon predominance in the Western Pacific. Until now, Australians have always seen that predominance as both the necessary and the sufficient condition for their security on the edge of Asia. But China’s rise challenges these notions … the country has come to believe that its future prosperity depends primarily on China. But more profoundly, it also raises strategic questions about whether U.S. power can still underwrite Australia’s security. The United States has faced foes in Asia before, but never any with an economy that could soon overtake its own. Thus Australia’s old ideas about its alliances are starting to fray, and so too are its deepest assumptions about its place in the world. Australia still needs the United States, and can hardly imagine doing without its support, but it also realizes that America’s role in Asia, and hence its role as Australia’s ally, must change as Asia is transformed … The country’s politicians are disoriented by the profound shift in what has, for decades, been a very comfortable position. And Australians themselves would much prefer things to remain as they are. That gives their leaders even more reason to keep saying they do not have to make any hard choices. Nor is Canberra alone in its confusion and doublespeak. Washington’s approach to China is just as misleading as Canberra’s … Like the oft-made claim that the United States is not trying to contain China, the idea that the country does not ask countries to choose between Washington and Beijing only makes sense if the United States does not believe that China is challenging American primacy in Asia … the United States’ whole approach to China is indeed based on a lingering hope that Beijing fundamentally accepts U.S. primacy … Unfortunately, this hope is false. China is challenging the U.S.-led order in Asia; it seeks to replace it with “a new model of great-power relations,” as Chinese President Xi Jinping has noted. And that means … a containment strategy, and U.S. allies like Australia do need to choose whether to support it in this or not … The further their rivalry escalates, the starker the options for Australia, and the more probable that, at some stage (and perhaps quite soon), Australia will find itself forced to pick. … On the other hand, people in Canberra know China well enough to understand that sending forces to fight against China would fatally damage a trading relationship on which the whole country’s economic future depends … If Australia wants to avoid decision time, its highest diplomatic priority must be to help stem the escalating rivalry America and China … it requires Washington and Beijing to agree on a new regional order that goes some way to satisfying both of them, thus providing a durable basis for peace and stability in Asia … realistically it must give China a bigger leadership role … and preserve a strong U.S. role as well … China and the United States would need to find a way to share power with one another as equals … the consequences of failing to find a new and durable modus vivendi would be very grave indeed — for America and China, as well as for the Australias of the world. Australia’s interest in such a deal is enormous, but Australia can do little to broker this kind of deal — certainly it has no role as an intermediary between America and China. All it can do is urge both countries, especially its close ally the United States, to do so … the idea of the United States sharing power with China is scary. But Asia’s peace and stability, and hence Australia’s security and prosperity, require it — and the country’s leaders have to recognize that. The real choice Australia faces now, then, is not East or West but whether to try to do everything possible to bring about a new order. If it decides it should, the first thing to do is to start talking frankly to America about the choices that America itself faces about China and the necessity of sharing power in Asia with China.


… und ein paar hab’ ich noch: (Anhang)

Beste Grüße von der Elbe!

+ ein besonderes Dankeschön in das Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie für den schnellen Hinweis auf das Wasserthema in der SWP-Studie: Ungeplant bleibt der Normalfall!

Jörg Barandat